The Reliance School

1,800 Words / 7 min. Read

Collapse can be a scary subject, and if you care about climate change and the environment, you’ve probably gotten sucked into some late-night doomscrolling before.¹ That’s not our goal with this post.

The main focus of The Reliance School is actionable solutions, so we don’t like to spend too much time on the bad stuff. That said, if you want to change reality, you have to face it first, and we believe that conversation around collapse can help inspire us to take action. That’s our purpose here, and we hope it helps push you in that direction.

If you’re new to collapse theory, this post is a good introduction; it’s written as a conversation (like the Greeks used to do),² and we tried to keep things as simple as possible without skipping any important stuff. So with that, where should we start?

Let’s start at the beginning. What is collapse?

Fundamentally, collapse is when a complex society reverts back to a simpler state. In practice, that often entails:

a rapid and enduring loss of population, identity and socio-economic complexity. Public services crumble and disorder ensues as government loses control of its monopoly on violence.³

That doesn’t sound like fun. Is our civilization going to collapse?

Yes, that's pretty much inevitable. Every civilization in recorded history has collapsed so far,⁴ so we shouldn’t be any different.

But we are different; our current civilization is completely unprecedented.

That’s true in some ways, but the things that make it unprecedented actually make it more vulnerable to collapse.

Such as?

Civilizations collapse for two main reasons: they become too complicated to manage, and they run out of resources.⁵ In other words, they become victims of their own success.⁶

Industrial civilization is vastly more complex than the ones that came before it; you’d probably agree with that, right?

Yes, but we seem to be able to manage that complexity.

To a point, yes. But it takes a ton of energy to do that. We consumed over 175,000 TWh of energy in 2021, compared to 5,000 TWh at the beginning of the 19th century,⁷ and that’s just to maintain society as it exists right now.

But we still have a ton of energy available.

We have a ton of energy available in the form of fossil fuels. But if we continue burning those at current rates, we’ll raise the temperature of the planet to the point where it can no longer support human life.⁸

What about renewable energy?

Right now, renewable energy is nowhere close to meeting the energy needs of our civilization.⁹ On top of that, it’s not as energy-dense, it’s harder to store and transport, and supplies are intermittent.¹⁰

But with improvements in technology, we could overcome those issues.

That’s debatable; some studies predict that we don’t actually have enough mineral resources to decarbonize,¹¹ while others predict that we do.¹² And so far, renewable energy has mostly been expanding on fossil fuel production, not displacing it.¹³

But let’s go all the way to the logical conclusion: what if we had a free, unlimited source of electricity that didn’t require any raw materials at all?

That would be amazing!

Actually, it would be one of the worst possible outcomes.

How so?

Because the more energy we have, the more resources we consume,¹⁴ and we’re already consuming more natural resources than the planet can replenish. This is called ecological overshoot; we crossed that line back in 1971,¹⁵ and it’s been getting worse ever since.

Could you talk a little more about overshoot?

Overshoot happens all the time in nature; a herd of animals will find a new area with abundant resources, their population grows, the resources are overconsumed, and the herd dies back.¹⁶

The basic principle of overshoot is that any given area has a finite amount of resources (known as carrying capacity), and when you consume more than you produce, it’s only a matter of time until you crash.¹⁷ The issue with industrial civilization is that the given area is our entire planet, and as they say, there’s no planet B.¹⁸

What resources are we depleting?

Well, everything,¹⁹ but primarily the ones we need to survive and continue this experiment of civilization, like groundwater,²⁰ forests,²¹ fisheries,²² pollinators,²³ general biodiversity,²⁴ topsoil,²⁵ arable land,²⁶ phosphorus,²⁷ sand,²⁸ and economically viable mineral deposits.²⁹

Each of these alone would be enough to destabilize society, and we’re coming up against all of them at once. And the longer we stay in overshoot, the more we degrade our carrying capacity, which amplifies the consequences of collapse. One way or another, our high-energy civilization needs to be scaled down.³¹

OK, let’s pause and see if I’ve got this right. All civilizations collapse, and this happens when they grow too complex and run out of resources. Our civilization is really complex and consumes way more resources than it produces; if we keep going at this pace, we’re going to run it into the ground.

Yes, that’s a good summary.

So we need to reduce our consumption and complexity, or collapse is going to do it for us.

Exactly.

What can we do to give ourselves a softer landing?

As a society, or as individuals?

Let’s start with society.

At this point, degrowth seems like the only way out;³² unfortunately it’s going to be very difficult to get society to change course. That’s because most of the problems we’re dealing with are also multipolar traps;³³ situations where the best action for an individual creates the worst outcome for a group.

Can you give an example?

Sure; let’s say there’s a lake full of fish, and some fishermen that depend on those fish to survive. One fisherman invents a net that’s twice as effective as the old ones, so he’s able to catch more fish, sell the surplus at the market, make more nets, and catch even more fish in turn. The other fishermen see his success and decide to make new nets of their own, and before long, everyone’s getting rich at the market.

The problem is, now they’re overfishing the lake; if they continue at this rate, there will be no more fish left. But since everyone’s doing it, the best choice for each individual fisherman is to catch as many fish as possible, so that they can build up their stores before the lake runs out. Do you see the parallel?

Yes, but there’s a third option; ban the nets, or set a limit on the amount of fish you can catch.

Correct, but that only works if you have an authority with the power to enforce the rules (in other words, a monopoly on violence).³⁴ And when we’re talking about global problems, that means we’d need a global authority that could force countries to reduce their consumption (and thereby lower their standards of living). Do you see that happening anytime soon?

No. Well, maybe, but it would be pretty dystopian.

Right, and that’s the issue with top-down solutions; the amount of power needed to enact that level of change would be catastrophic if misused, and the people that end up in positions of power aren't usually the ones we want there.³⁵ As Juvenal asks, “Who watches the watchers?”³⁶

OK, so what can we do as individuals?

That’s the big question that started this whole project. What can we do right now to build resilience and lessen the impact of collapse?

Here’s what we settled on: first, face the reality of the situation (that’s what we’re doing here). Consider the future we may be facing and act accordingly. Second, understand the risks that are unique to your area, and third, prepare for those risks. Make a plan, set aside supplies, and learn the skills necessary to cope with disaster.

Next, become a producer of resources, not just a consumer. If supply chains break down, being able to take care of your basic needs (such as food, water, shelter, heat, power, and transportation) will provide a buffer against scarcity. Lastly, build community. No one person can learn every skill or provide every resource, so fostering close, trusting relationships with those around you will be essential to making it through.

How long do we have to start doing all this?

The fall of civilization isn’t a linear event; like a raft floating towards a waterfall, collapse happens slowly, and then very suddenly.³⁷ And by some metrics, America is already there.³⁸ But if we’re going to put a number on it, MIT research predicts that multiple existential crises will converge around 2050.³⁹ And based on deforestation alone, a recent study concluded that we may only have a 10% chance of making it through the next few decades with our civilization intact.⁴⁰

So we have some time.

We have some time, but it takes time to build resilience too. How long does it take to learn a new skill? How long does it take to plant an orchard? How long does it take to save up the money to buy land and build a house? How long does it take to start an intentional community?

Collapse doesn’t happen overnight, but neither does resilience. As the saying goes, "The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now." Or, more relevantly:

“If I knew the world was to end tomorrow, I would still plant an apple tree today.”⁴¹

But what if collapse never comes?

That’s a reasonable question, because there’s always the possibility of a black swan event⁴² changing the course of history in some unforeseen way. The question we’d ask in response is, what’s the cost of preparing for collapse?

Whatever it costs to build a survival bunker?

That’s exactly what we’re not proposing. The things we advocate for in our guides - reducing consumption, living simply, growing food, supporting wildlife, and creating community - are all cheap, and they all demonstrably increase your wellbeing. There’s no great sacrifice on the table here, only a deconditioning from consumerism,⁴³ and letting go of the delusion of limitless growth.⁴⁴

Think of it like Pascal’s Wager;⁴⁵ if you prepare for collapse and collapse never comes, you can breathe a sigh of relief under the shade of your apple tree. If collapse catches you unprepared, there may be no shelter left to find.

So we should start preparing right now.

Exactly. The more people that prepare for collapse, the less chaos, hardship, and suffering we’ll be in for as a society. It’s not just about saving yourself; it’s about being able to help those around you make it through as well.

OK, I think you’ve convinced me.

I hope so! I’m going to sign off before this gets too meta, but it’s been really nice talking with you.

‍Footnotes & References

1. Doomscrolling Is Slowly Eroding Your Mental Health (Angela Watercutter, Wired)
2. Dialectic (Wikipedia)
3. Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (Luke Kemp, BBC Future)
4. The lifespans of ancient civilisations (Luke Kemp, BBC Future)
5. How Do You Know When Society Is About to Fall Apart? (Ben Ehrenreich, The New York Times)
6. Can We Still Dodge the Progress Trap? (Ronald Wright, TheTyee.ca)
7. How have the world’s energy sources changed over the last two centuries? (Hannah Ritchie, Our World in Data)
8. The Uninhabitable Earth (David Wallace-Wells, New York Magazine)
9. Global primary energy consumption by source (Our World In Data)
10. Why are fossil fuels so hard to quit? (Samantha Gross, Brookings Institute)
11. Replacing Fossil Fuels is Even More Enormous Task Than Thought (Simon Michaux, Geological Survey of Finland)
12. The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions (International Energy Agency)
13. Do alternative energy sources displace fossil fuels? (Richard York, Nature Climate Change)
14. Why confronting the environmental crisis is going to be difficult. (Peter Sale)
15. Past Earth Overshoot Days (Earth Overshoot Day)
16. St Matthew Island (Stuart McMillen)
17. There Is No Planet B (Mike Berners-Lee, Cambridge University Press)
18. Overshoot, Collapse, and Creating a Better Future (Jørgen Randers, Chelsea Green)
19. Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy (Mathis Wackernagel, Niels B. Schulz, Diana Deumling, Alejandro Callejas Linares, Martin Jenkins, Valerie Kapos, Chad Monfreda, Jonathan Loh, Norman Myers, Richard Norgaard, Jørgen Randers)
20. If You Think the Water Crisis Can't Get Worse, Wait Until the Aquifers Are Drained (Dennis Dimick, National Geographic)
21. Deforestation and Forest Loss (Hannah Ritchie, Max Roser, Our World in Data)
22. How overfishing threatens the world's oceans (Amy McKeever, National Geographic)
23. Princeton research shows how the decline in pollinators can ripple across ecosystems (Liana Wait, High Meadows Environmental Institute)
24. Biodiversity (Hannah Ritchie, Fiona Spooner, Max Roser, Our World in Data)
25. More Than 50 Billion Tons of Topsoil Have Eroded in the Midwest (Elizabeth Gamillo, Smithsonian Magazine)
26. Earth has lost a third of arable land in past 40 years, scientists say (Oliver Milman, The Guardian)
27. The World’s Farms Are Hooked on Phosphorus. It’s a Problem (Max G. Levy, Wired)
28. Why the world is running out of sand (Vince Beiser, BBC Future)
29. Mineral Resource Depletion: A Coming Age of Stockpiling? (Ugo Bardi, Rolf Jakobi, Hiroshan Hettiarachchi, BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality)
30. Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet (Will Steffen , Katherine Richardson, Johan Rockström, Sarah E. Cornell, Ingo Fetzer, Elena M. Bennett, Reinette Biggs, Stephen R. Carpenter, Wim de Vries, Cynthia A. de Wit, Carl Folke, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Georgina M. Mace, Linn M. Persson, Veerabhadran Ramanathan, Belinda Reyers, Sverker Sörlin, Science)
31. The Old Future Is Gone, and Technology Won’t Bring It Back (Stan Cox, City Lights)
32. Degrowth (Wikipedia)
33. Meditations On Moloch (Scott Alexander, Slate Star Codex)
34. state monopoly on violence (André Munro, Britannica)
35. How Neuropathology Explains the Behavior of Dictators (Nastia Travkina, Zaborona)
36. Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? (Wikipedia)
37. Collapse Happens Slowly… and Then Very Suddenly (Dave Pollard, how to save the world)
38. Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (Luke Kemp, BBC Future)
39. MIT Predicted in 1972 That Society Will Collapse This Century. New Research Shows We’re on Schedule. (Nafeez Ahmed, Vice)
40. Chances Of Societal Collapse In Next Few Decades Is Sky High, Modelling Suggests (Tom Hale, IFLScience)
41. Luther’s Apocryphal Apple Tree (Jordan Ballor, The Calvinist International)
42. black swan event (Sanat Pai Raikar, Britannica)
43. How the world embraced consumerism (Kerryn Higgs, BBC Future)
44. The Delusion of Infinite Economic Growth (Chirag Dhara, Vandana Singh, Scientific American)
45. Pascal’s wager (Britannica)